from pollster.com we have what is starting to look like a blow-out.
If this map holds, McCain is toast. Because he will be forced to play defense just to try and hang on to barely enough states to win while Obama will be on the offense across all of them. And offense wins.
So where does FiveThirtyEight have it? We’ll were now pretty blue and McCain is toast:
Remember when Colorado & Virginia were the key states and Indiana, Arkansas, Florida, & North Carolina were safe McCain states? Florida is now blue and the fight has moved to Indiana & North Carolina. The Republicans have to fight to hold North Carolina!
We still have 5 weeks to go. But my guess is that the Obama team is a lot less stressed than the McCain team – which had McCain in Iowa today for who knows what reason…
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Before McDrama un-unsuspends his campaign?
That’s a suspicious sort of poll jump, which probably won’t last the next month. Especially since Republicans have finally decided, at long last, that they may start attacking Obama.
nearly 1/4 of voters say their vote is up for grabs. That’s absolutely huge. It doesn’t look good for McCain at the moment, but I was making fun of him a year ago for having to carry his own luggage through the airport.
I can only hope his cockroach-like abilities come through again.
I am having kind of a lefty moment, though. I’ll probably diary about it tomorrow.
with actual voters?
I can see where you might say that given that pollster says 125 electoral votes are up for grabs, but the data on “undecideds” is much lower – less than 5% as I recall.
Typical polling numbers have been things like 47-43 or so, which would mean 10% are undecided. Which is still very large.
Bush was leading in nearly every poll all through September and October.
http://www.pollingreport2.com/…
http://www.realclearpolitics.c…
But the moral of the story is that Kerry still got 49% of the vote, and it was one of the closest elections ever.
Obama may be doing well in polls now, but October is a long month.
GOTV officially starts on Tuesday.